How much time have we got?
نویسندگان
چکیده
Here we present a developing probabilistic simulation model and tool to assess likely lead times from emergence detection arrival for new emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). Key aspects include combining real-world data available on multiple scales with flexible underlying disease model. As demonstrated by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic other diseases, there is need scenario exploration mitigation, surveillance preparedness strategies. Existing engines have been assessed but found offer an insufficient set of features regards flexibility control over processes, structure sets incorporated wider enough range circumstances, cofactors scenarios (Heslop et al. 2017) suit our aims. We are therefore first version designed be able incorporate diverse models sources including transmission infectivity stages, host species, varying evolving virulence, socioeconomic differences, climate events public health countermeasures. It respect implementing both improvements in as they become available. based discrete-time (daily) where spatial movement transition between categories stochastic rates dependent past states model, while being informed most suitable (Fig. 1). The probability itself treated process variable factors parameterized performance, yet open manipulation regarding reporting effectiveness. Pathogen hotspot sourced literature included assessment well source cofactor (Allen 2017), population adressed (Leyk 2019) utility combined local connectivity (Nelson transnational patterns (Recchi 2019Fig. 1), increasing ecological candidate variables. Model parameterization relies machine learning framework matching often partial known relevant cases training data, assessing them plausible ranges input new, hypothetical EIDs. parameterizations improve, explore will effects change stressors. When becomes it shared under MIT license.
منابع مشابه
Imaging of the unstable plaque: how far have we got?
Rupture of unstable plaques may lead to myocardial infarction or stroke and is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in western countries. Thus, there is a clear need for identifying these vulnerable plaques before the rupture occurs. Atherosclerotic plaques are a challenging imaging target as they are small and move rapidly, especially in the coronary tree. Many of the currently availab...
متن کاملWe Have Got Compression, What Next?
Test compression is one of the fastest adopted DFT methodologies. It was commercially introduced eight years ago, and now it has become the mainstream DFT technology. Disruptive technology of this magnitude has impact that goes far beyond cost of manufacturing test. Test compression has changed competitive landscape, opened up completely new opportunities in product quality and yield management...
متن کاملDiabetes: Have We Got It All Wrong?
In this “clinical” contribution to the Bench to Clinic Symposia, we will show data to support the hypothesis that fasting hyperinsulinemia is the initial underlying cause of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and that the remission of the disease following bariatric surgery may be due to the correction of hyperinsulinemia. The intent of this article is to elicit critical thinking about the pathoph...
متن کاملDiabetes: Have We Got It All Wrong?
The problemdDiabetes is prevalent and chronic (1). A meta-analysis of studies published between 1990 and 2006 showed that in adults, obesity prevalence increased from 13 to 32% between the 1960s and 2004. Currently, 66% of U.S. adults are overweight or obese. The incidence of diabetes is increasing and afflicting new populations including children anddeveloping societies. Changes in obesity pre...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: ARPHA Conference Abstracts
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2603-3925']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3897/aca.4.e68934